C I T I Z E N I N T E L L I G E N C E A R C H I V E
CIA-HOUSE-005: The 22 Toss-Up House Races
House Series, Model No. 5 | Session 1 working document | October 8, 2026 | Money Test: AIPAC and pro-
Israel PAC money
WHAT THIS IS: All 435 House seats are up on November 3, 2026. These 22 are the ones the
Cook Political Report rates "Toss Up" (ratings dated Sept 25, 2026). For each race this file
lists the two nominees and what I could find about AIPAC and other pro-Israel PAC money. It
is the same Money Test used in the Senate files.
Read this first: how to read the labels
DOCUMENTED
I read a filing or record showing direct AIPAC PAC contributions. Only 2 nominees
reach this level: Miller-Meeks (IA-01) and Van Orden (WI-03). Both are 2022-2024
cycle records, and the framework treats direct AIPAC funding as a flag.
REPORTED
A news report or TrackAIPAC total. TrackAIPAC totals add up all pro-Israel PACs it
tracks, and they are career totals, not just 2026. This is not the same as an AIPAC flag.
It is the same unresolved framework question as North Carolina in the Senate files:
does non-AIPAC pro-Israel PAC money count?
WATCH
A claim that is disputed, unconfirmed, or comes from a weak source.
NOT FOUND
I searched and found nothing. This does not mean clean. I could not reach the FEC
database, OpenSecrets, or TrackAIPAC's per-candidate pages, so a lot of "not found"
really means "not checked at filing level."
All dollar figures not marked DOCUMENTED come from secondary sources and need checking against FEC filings
before anyone repeats them.
The 22 races at a glance
RACE
HELD
BY
NOMINEES
MONEY SNAPSHOT
FL-14
D-held
Kathy Castor (D) vs. Mike Beltran (R)
PRO-ISRAEL PAC $ REPORTED
FL-22
D-held
Pia Dandiya (D) vs. Casey Askar (R)
NONE FOUND
FL-25
D-held
Jared Moskowitz (D) vs. Scott Singer (R)
DISPUTED / WATCH
OH-09
D-held
Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Derek Merrin (R)
PRO-ISRAEL PAC $ REPORTED
TX-34
D-held
Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs. Eric Flores (R)
PRO-ISRAEL PAC $ REPORTED
WA-03
D-held
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) vs. John Braun
(R)
PRO-ISRAEL PAC $ REPORTED
AZ-06
R-held
Juan Ciscomani (R) vs. JoAnna Mendoza (D)
PRO-ISRAEL PAC $ REPORTED
CA-22
R-held
David Valadao (R) vs. Randy Villegas (D)
DISPUTED / WATCH
CO-08
R-held
Gabe Evans (R) vs. Manny Rutinel (D)
PRO-ISRAEL PAC $ REPORTED
IA-01
R-held
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) vs. Christina
Bohannan (D)
DIRECT AIPAC PAC $
DOCUMENTED
IA-03
R-held
Zach Nunn (R) vs. Sarah Trone Garriott (D)
PRO-ISRAEL PAC $ REPORTED
MI-07
R-held
Tom Barrett (R) vs. Will Lawrence (D)
DISPUTED / WATCH
MI-10
R-held
Michael Bouchard (R) vs. Christina Hines (D)
NONE FOUND
NC-11
R-held
Jamie Ager (D) vs. Jennifer Balkcom (R)
NONE FOUND
CIA-HOUSE-005 | Page 1

NY-17
R-held
Mike Lawler (R) vs. Cait Conley (D)
PRO-ISRAEL PAC $ REPORTED
OH-07
R-held
Max Miller (R) vs. Brian Poindexter (D)
PRO-ISRAEL PAC $ REPORTED
PA-07
R-held
Ryan Mackenzie (R) vs. Bob Brooks (D)
PRO-ISRAEL PAC $ REPORTED
PA-08
R-held
Rob Bresnahan (R) vs. Paige Cognetti (D)
PRO-ISRAEL PAC $ REPORTED
PA-10
R-held
Scott Perry (R) vs. Janelle Stelson (D)
PRO-ISRAEL PAC $ REPORTED
TX-15
R-held
Monica De La Cruz (R) vs. Bobby Pulido (D)
PRO-ISRAEL PAC $ REPORTED
VA-02
R-held
Jen Kiggans (R) vs. Elaine Luria (D)
DISPUTED / WATCH
WI-03
R-held
Derrick Van Orden (R) vs. Rebecca Cooke (D)
DIRECT AIPAC PAC $
DOCUMENTED
ARCHITECT ANALYSIS (opinion): In the toss-up seats, the AIPAC story is mostly about
incumbents. Most sitting members in these races have reported pro-Israel PAC money. Most
challengers show nothing yet, and for many of them that is because no one has checked, not
because the money is absent. The two clearest cases on the page are Republicans (Miller-
Meeks and Van Orden). The biggest outside-spending fights I found are in the Democratic
primaries (CA-22, MI-07), and in two of them the spending was reported to go against the
more progressive candidate. A voter should ask each candidate where their money comes
from, and ask for the filing, not the talking points.
CIA-HOUSE-005 | Page 2

Race by race
FL-14 D-held-seat | Redrawn map
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Kathy Castor
D
Incumbent
Mike Beltran
R
Challenger, won Aug 18 GOP primary
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Castor
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC lists $93,407 in career pro-Israel PAC giving, all groups
combined, with AIPAC among them. A third-party PDF built from FEC
data shows $10,025 from AIPAC in 2023-24.
Castor
NOT
FOUND
No 2026-cycle AIPAC or UDP money, and no AIPAC or DMFI
endorsement, found.
Beltran
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found.
FL-22 D-held-seat | Open seat (Frankel retiring)
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Pia Dandiya
D
Won Aug 18 primary, 68.6% to 31.4%
Casey Askar
R
Won Aug 18 GOP primary
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Dandiya
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found.
Askar
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found.
Askar
FEC FACT
(not
AIPAC)
FEC page (Apr 1-Jul 29, 2026): $2,500,000 in loans from the candidate;
$2,587,501.57 total receipts; $1,067,637.61 cash on hand.
Also: Cook's page showed both "Lean R" and "Toss Up" text for this race. Confirm the live rating.
CIA-HOUSE-005 | Page 3

FL-25 D-held-seat | Redrawn map
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Jared Moskowitz
D
Incumbent, won primary 63.5% to 36.5%
Scott Singer
R
Former Boca Raton mayor, won five-way GOP primary
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Moskowitz
WATCH
OpenSecrets data cited by a local paper shows about $953,900 "from
AIPAC" through Aug 4, about a third of roughly $2.9M raised. Moskowitz
says these are Jewish Americans giving through an organization. Local
reporting describes AIPAC as a channel for about 260 individual
donations in Q1, so this is likely mostly individual donors, not PAC
checks. Needs FEC verification.
Moskowitz
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $833,288 in pro-Israel PAC giving. DMFI
endorsed him (Dec 2025 slate).
Singer
REPORTED
The Republican Jewish Coalition endorsed him Sept 3, 2026. No dollar
amounts. No AIPAC PAC or UDP money found. He raised $1.3M by April.
OH-09 D-held-seat
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Marcy Kaptur
D
Incumbent, no primary challenger
Derek Merrin
R
Won May 5 GOP primary with 44.1%
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Kaptur
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $227,588 in pro-Israel PAC giving. AIPAC is not
among the groups it lists. No AIPAC or DMFI endorsement found.
Merrin
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found. Club for Growth PAC endorsed
him (no amount verified).
Also: Kaptur had $3.1M cash on hand at the end of Q1 2026.
TX-34 D-held-seat
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Vicente Gonzalez
D
Incumbent
Eric Flores
R
Trump-endorsed, won Mar 3 GOP primary
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Gonzalez
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $397,389 in pro-Israel PAC giving. A third-party
PDF built from FEC data shows $41,951 from AIPAC in 2023-24. DMFI
endorsed him (Dec 2025).
Flores
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found.
Also: Also on the ballot: Eddie Espinoza (G) and Chris Royal (L).
CIA-HOUSE-005 | Page 4

WA-03 D-held-seat | Top-two primary Aug 4
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
D
Incumbent, about 36.6% (unofficial)
John Braun
R
State Senate Minority Leader, about 39.6% (unofficial)
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Perez
REPORTED
Ballotpedia states AIPAC endorsed her. DMFI endorsed her (Dec 2025).
An opinion piece (Oct 2025) cites $285,128 in "AIPAC-related support" as
of Aug 2025; that is unverified.
Braun
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found.
AZ-06 R-held-seat
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Juan Ciscomani
R
Incumbent
JoAnna Mendoza
D
Won July 21 primary unopposed
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Ciscomani
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $1,224,703 from AIPAC, AMP, GCSC, LAFAS,
RJC, SUNPAC and USI. All direct or earmarked.
Mendoza
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found.
CA-22 R-held-seat | Top-two primary June 2
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
David Valadao
R
Incumbent, about 40% (about 90% counted)
Randy Villegas
D
School board member and professor, about 32% to Bains 27%
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Valadao
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $271,108 from AIPAC, AMP, PIA, RJC and USI.
Villegas
WATCH
Jewish Insider reported Democratic Majority for Israel spent about
$500,000 on TV ads opposing him in the primary and backing Jasmeet
Bains. CalMatters reported outside groups spent more than $2.2M
against him in the final month. That total is combined and includes
DMFI, centrist-caucus super PACs and the Congressional Leadership
Fund.
Villegas
NOT
FOUND
No direct pro-Israel PAC contributions or AIPAC/UDP spending found.
CIA-HOUSE-005 | Page 5

CO-08 R-held-seat
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Gabe Evans
R
Incumbent. His primary result was not confirmed
Manny Rutinel
D
Won June 30 primary by about 26 points
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Evans
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $724,445: $56,292 direct and $668,153
independent expenditures, from AIPAC and RJC. Year and spender of the
$668K not determined.
Rutinel
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found.
Also: Democratic primary money (reported by KUNC): about $3M from Latino-focused groups helping Rutinel;
$980K from a PAC funded by Chris Larsen for him; about $1.3M from an EMILY's List-tied group against him.
IA-01 R-held-seat | 2024 rematch (decided by fewer than 800 votes)
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
R
Incumbent, won June 2 primary
Christina Bohannan
D
Won June 2 primary
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Miller-
Meeks
DOCUMENTED
ProPublica itemizer shows 17 direct contributions from the AIPAC
PAC totaling $35,534: 12 in 2022 ($22,224) and 5 in 2024 ($13,310).
The latest was $5,000 on Oct 14, 2024. The page may omit recent
weeks.
Miller-
Meeks
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $251,697 from all pro-Israel PACs it tracks.
Bohannan
FEC FACT (not
AIPAC)
DMFI PAC gave $1,000 on Sept 24, 2024. This is the only listed
contribution, and it is the 2024 cycle.
Bohannan
NOT FOUND
No AIPAC or UDP money found.
IA-03 R-held-seat
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Zach Nunn
R
Incumbent. His primary result was not confirmed
Sarah Trone Garriott
D
State senator, Democratic nominee
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Nunn
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $148,525 from AIPAC, RJC, TPOH and USI. The
filing page failed to load, so there is no documented figure.
Trone
Garriott
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found.
Also: J Street PAC runs a joint donation page for Bohannan and Trone Garriott. It describes no endorsement.
CIA-HOUSE-005 | Page 6

MI-07 R-held-seat
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Tom Barrett
R
Incumbent
Will Lawrence
D
Won Aug 4 primary over Bridget Brink and Matt Maasdam
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Barrett
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $31,136 in pro-Israel PAC giving (AIPAC and
RJC). No outside spending found.
Lawrence
NOT
FOUND
No pro-Israel PAC support found. He has called for ending U.S. military
aid to Israel (per JTA).
Lawrence
WATCH
Spending against him in the primary: Crush MAGA PAC ran a $532,000
ad campaign (Prospect, as of July 11). Its affiliate, Save Democracy PAC,
received $100,000 from UDP on May 20 (Prospect, citing an FEC record
I did not open). UDP's spokesperson denied involvement in the ads. A
separate report, sourced to two anonymous people and no filing, says a
DMFI-linked group opened an ad buy "beginning with $899,000." Treat
that last item as weak.
Also: American Action Network (aligned with House Republican leadership) is running $1.3M of ads across
MI-07 and MI-08, split not disclosed.
MI-10 R-held-seat | Open seat (James leaving)
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Michael Bouchard
R
Trump-endorsed, won Aug 4 primary with 72%
Christina Hines
D
Won Aug 4 primary with 47%
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Both
NOT
FOUND
No direct contributions, outside spending or AIPAC endorsement found
for either. I did not open the FEC pages, so this is not a clean bill.
Also: The DCCC Red to Blue program is backing Hines. No amount given.
NC-11 R-held-seat | Open seat (Edwards withdrew)
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Jamie Ager
D
Farmer, won March 3 primary
Jennifer
Balkcom
R
State representative, picked by the party committee Aug 10, not by a
primary
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Ager
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found.
Balkcom
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found. She is a state-level candidate,
so federal filings may not exist yet.
Edwards
NOTE
Not a nominee. Chuck Edwards withdrew after a House Ethics report
recommended censure. TrackAIPAC lists $87,166 in AIPAC-group giving
to him, shown for context only.
Also: Ager had almost $2.2M cash on hand entering July.
CIA-HOUSE-005 | Page 7

NY-17 R-held-seat
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Mike Lawler
R
Incumbent
Cait Conley
D
Won June 23 primary over four others
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Lawler
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $1,181,950 in pro-Israel PAC giving (AIPAC,
AMP, MDACC, NORPAC, RJC, USI), no per-group split. A blog reports
"more than $1 million" from AIPAC, with no date or filing. Treat that as
weak.
Conley
REPORTED
Jewish Insider lists Democratic Majority for Israel among national groups
backing her. No amount.
Conley
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or UDP money found.
Also: In the primary, a group described as "tenuously linked to GOP operatives" announced at least $1.5M
against Conley. A pro-veterans PAC announced $1M to boost her.
OH-07 R-held-seat
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Max Miller
R
Incumbent
Brian Poindexter
D
Brook Park councilman, won May 5 primary with about 37%
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Miller
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $366,455 in pro-Israel PAC giving (AIPAC, AMP,
COPAC, NORPAC, RJC, USI).
Poindexter
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found.
Also: House Majority PAC has announced more than $7M in Cleveland-market ads. Miller says he will lend his
campaign $1M. Blue Dog Action Fund spent nearly $200,000 for Poindexter in the primary.
PA-07 R-held-seat
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Ryan Mackenzie
R
Incumbent
Bob Brooks
D
Firefighter, won May 19 primary with about 42%
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Mackenzie
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $74,280 in pro-Israel PAC giving.
Brooks
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found.
CIA-HOUSE-005 | Page 8

PA-08 R-held-seat
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Rob Bresnahan
R
Incumbent
Paige Cognetti
D
Scranton mayor, unopposed May 19
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Bresnahan
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $83,266 in pro-Israel PAC giving. Jewish Insider
(Jan 2026) reported AIPAC endorses him.
Cognetti
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found. In January, DMFI's political
arm had made no endorsement.
PA-10 R-held-seat
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Scott Perry
R
Incumbent, unopposed in primary
Janelle Stelson
D
Won May 19 primary
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Perry
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $128,972. In May 2024, AIPAC reportedly
stopped taking donations for him and 14 other Republicans over their
vote against Israel aid, after giving his campaign $12,751 in the prior
four months. His 2026 AIPAC status was not found.
Stelson
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $19,650, listed as "Endorsed by DMFI in 2024."
No 2026 endorsement or spending found.
TX-15 R-held-seat
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Monica De La Cruz
R
Incumbent, unopposed in primary
Bobby Pulido
D
Won March 3 primary with about 67%
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
De La Cruz
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $137,890 in pro-Israel PAC giving.
Pulido
NOT
FOUND
No AIPAC or pro-Israel PAC money found.
Also: BDA PAC (Blue Dog-linked) directed over $997,000 toward Pulido's primary. The Latino Victory Fund
also spent for him, no amount given.
CIA-HOUSE-005 | Page 9

VA-02 R-held-seat
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Jen Kiggans
R
Incumbent
Elaine Luria
D
Former U.S. Representative, won Aug 4 primary
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Kiggans
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $110,700 in pro-Israel PAC giving.
Luria
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $1,087,672 (AIPAC, PIA, NORPAC, JAC, TPOH
and more). She served in Congress 2019-2023, so this likely includes
earlier cycles.
Luria
WATCH
A Jewish Insider headline (Sept 2026) says DMFI launched a $1 million
ad campaign supporting her. I could not load the article, so the amount
and date are unconfirmed.
Also: A Giffords PAC press release (Sept 2026) announces "nearly $1M" to elect Luria. Headline only.
WI-03 R-held-seat | 2024 rematch
NOMINEE
PARTY
STATUS
Derrick Van Orden
R
Incumbent
Rebecca Cooke
D
Won Aug 11 primary, 60.4% to 39.4%
WHO
LABEL
FINDING
Van Orden
DOCUMENTED
ProPublica itemizer: the AIPAC PAC gave his campaign 16 line items
in the 2024 cycle, netting $20,312 (Mar 21 to Oct 25, 2024,
including one $5,000 contribution later reversed). No 2026
itemization retrieved.
Van Orden
WATCH
Cooke says he is "the only AIPAC-endorsed candidate in the race."
That is her claim, not a documented endorsement.
Cooke
REPORTED
TrackAIPAC career total $110,295 (DMFI, J Street). She says she has
never taken AIPAC money. TrackAIPAC lists no AIPAC for her.
Also: Disbursements through July 22: Cooke $6.78M, Van Orden $3.37M.
What I could not check
The FEC database and OpenSecrets were not reachable, so almost nothing here is verified
at filing level.
TrackAIPAC's per-candidate pages did not load. The totals come from its directory pages
and are career totals across all pro-Israel PACs.
Sludge's per-member AIPAC table, which would give 2026-only figures, did not load.
UDP's general-election spending was not checked. The sources I read covered primaries
through about June 30 and named none of these 22 races for UDP spending, but that is not
proof of zero.
Cook's live ratings can change. The list is from Sept 25, and the FL-22 page showed mixed
rating text.
Primary results for Evans (CO-08) and Nunn (IA-03) were not confirmed from a primary
record.
•
•
•
•
•
•
CIA-HOUSE-005 | Page 10

STATUS: SESSION 1 WORKING DOCUMENT. Open items: pull AIPAC PAC (C00797670) and UDP
(C00799031) records at fec.gov for all 44 nominees; confirm 2026-cycle direct contributions for incumbents;
open the Jewish Insider DMFI/Luria article; open the UDP May 20 transfer to Save Democracy PAC; check
DMFI Action and RJC independent expenditures.
Sources: Cook Political Report (Sept 25, 2026); TrackAIPAC; ProPublica Itemizer; FEC; Ballotpedia; Jewish
Insider; CalMatters; The American Prospect; KUNC; Florida Phoenix; local and state press as cited by race.
"I don't tell you how to vote. I give you the X-ray. You decide."
— Uma | PixelMagic / MindTraveler | People Over Party
CIA-HOUSE-005 | Page 11